Strategic Guidelines for Ukraine’s Macroeconomic Development under Global Transformations

Large-scale global transformations, military challenges, and structural changes in the world economy increase uncertainty and necessitate adaptation of Ukraine’s macroeconomic policy. An important component of this process is determining strategic development priorities as a prerequisite for ensuring economic stability, the state’s competitiveness, and its integration into the global economic space. The article aims to substantiate the strategic guidelines for Ukraine’s macroeconomic development in the context of global transformations. The research methodology is presented as a systematic approach using statistical and comparative analysis, induction, deduction, and logical generalization. The analysis of the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators indicates the high sensitivity of the national economy to crisis factors, as evidenced by fluctuations in economic growth rates, inflationary instability, and devaluation processes. According to the results of the correlation analysis of the relationships among the main macroeconomic indicators, using the Pearson and Spearman coefficients, a close direct relationship between inflation and currency fluctuations was established, indicating a significant impact of devaluation processes on price dynamics. At the same time, an inverse relationship was found between economic growth rates and exchange rate changes, and a moderate relationship between GDP and external debt, reflecting the peculiarities of financing the economy under conditions of instability. The article substantiates the strategic guidelines of economic policy aimed at improving the efficiency of the national economy. The author analyzed medium-term forecast indicators for the development of Ukraine for 2025–2028, which indicate a gradual recovery of economic activity, an improvement in the labor market, and the stabilization of inflationary processes. On this basis, a post-war recovery scenario was developed, which provides for a gradual increase in the main macroeconomic indicators, provided that the economic potential is restored and the integration of lost territories is completed. Overall, the findings suggest that Ukraine's macroeconomic development is characterized by increased variability and dependence on internal and external factors, while also demonstrating the ability to adapt.