Abstract
The emergence of private cryptocurrencies and stable digital assets (stablecoins) poses unprecedented challenges to the monetary sovereignty of states and the stability of traditional payment systems, forcing the central banks of the G20 countries to develop their own digital currencies (CBDCs). The article provides a comprehensive systemic analysis of the processes of introducing central bank digital currencies in the G20 countries as a factor in the transformation of global financial stability, as well as the scientifically based recommendations on the optimal architecture and regulation of the e-hryvnia in Ukraine. The research methodology is based on a systems-structural and comparative analysis of CBDC models and a balance-sheet modeling method to formalize changes in the structure of banking-sector liabilities. Additionally, the mathematical apparatus of the modified Diamond-Dybvig model enabled us to assess the probability of liquidity crises in depositor-panic scenarios. The results of the study demonstrate the deep heterogeneity of macro-financial effects. While in developed jurisdictions the issuance of digital money acts as a stabilizing factor, in emerging markets it increases the risk of disintermediation of commercial banks, worsens the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and net stable funding ratio (NSFR), and limits the volume of lending to the real sector of the economy. Large-scale implementation of retail models without proper regulation may lead to a structural deficit in banks’ long-term funding and curb the volume of lending to the real economy. To mitigate the risks of systemic bank runs and maintain the stability of banking intermediation, central banks need to adopt conservative, balanced design parameters for retail CBDCs. This study provides detailed recommendations for relevant institutions on the practical implementation of the e-hryvnia project in Ukraine, with the aim of minimizing macroeconomic risks and maintaining the stability of the domestic banking sector under martial law.
Keywords
central bank digital currency, financial stability, G20 countries, e-hryvnia, banking disintermediation, macroprudential policy, cross-border payments, monetary transmission