Monitoring and Assessing Ukraine’s Food Security Indicators under Crisis Conditions

In wartime, systematic monitoring of food security indicators and their assessment in accordance with new realities is of particular importance. The purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis, monitoring, and assessment of food security indicators in Ukraine during times of crisis. The research methodology encompasses systemic, indicative, and scenario-forecasting approaches to assessing food security, which together enable a comprehensive analysis of the state and dynamics of key quantitative indicators of food security at both macroeconomic and social levels, within the context of a multidimensional crisis driven by military, economic, and social factors. The lack of official statistical data for 2022–2025 necessitated the use of alternative analytical approaches, specifically scenario modelling and trend extrapolation. The study’s results show the energy value of the food ration for the period 2022-2025 demonstrates a downward-adaptive trajectory, characterised by a sharp decline in 2022, followed by a partial recovery in subsequent years, yet without a return to pre-war levels. The indicator of sufficiency in consumption of most products does not reach rational norms, especially for milk, fish, and fruit, which creates long-term risks to the health of the population. The domestic market capacity has been reduced by 5-20%, depending on the product group, and import dependence is critically high for fish, fruit, and certain types of oil. The economic accessibility of products is deteriorating due to the devaluation of the hryvnia and inflation, which leads to an increase in the share of household spending on food to 55-58% in 2022, and an exacerbation of social inequality, as the differentiation in spending between the poorest and richest households approaches marginal values. The results of the study confirm the need for a systematic approach to monitoring indicators, modernising public policy, and developing comprehensive strategies aimed at strengthening food security, protecting the population, and ensuring the long-term stability of the country’s food system.